2024 Presidential Election

Despite the state's Governor serving as the Vice Presidential nominee, Minnesota saw a notable shift to the right. The Democratic ticket won the presidential campaign with a margin of 4.2% in 2024 compared to 7.1% in 2020. Four key counties flipped from blue to red, signaling changing voter dynamics and underscoring the importance of localized campaign strategies.

Minnesota Democrats gained big in 2020’s high-turnout surge, but in 2024 they lost votes even as registration hit a record high. In our new world of disparate realities and targeted communication, Democrats can no longer count on increased support from a growing electorate.

key MN insights

MN Counties shifted right together regardless of size or geography.

96% of Minnesota counties shifted right in the 2024 Presidential election, regardless of size, historic DFL support, or geography.

Counties sized by total registered voter count. Only Lincoln, Lake, and Cook saw an increase in DFL support.

Graphic 1 shows DFL margin by County, with counties grouped by size and in a wide range from a +40% to a -56%. Graphic 2 shows the change in DFL margin in 2024, and here we see a much smaller range of under ten percentage points and with counties grouping regardless of size.

There is no "rural voter" pulling MN or Winona to the right.

Geography did not protect the DFL as both urban and rural counties saw declines in DFL support.

Four Counties flipped in MN in 2024 - all from Democrat to Republican. The GOP was also able to flip (29) counties in the U.S. Senator race and gain a college town by flipping LD 26A.

The flipped counties represent 128K registered voters and critical success for the GOP in flipping a college town (Winona).

This graphic shows the change in DFL margin by county with counties sized by total registered voter and with color scale

Blue = Growth in DFL Support

Pink - Red = Decline in DFL Support

It shows an overall decline in DFL support while calling into question the narrative of a "rural voter" defined by geography - here we see Greater and Southeast Minnesota including both strong opposition and the outlier counties that grew in support while the majority of counties - urban and rural - shifted right.

"Rural voter" Test Case: Winona County - Presidential Race

Democrats lost 400 votes while Republicans gained over 1,000.

Sorted by DFL Support

WINONA proper precincts dominate the list split of Top 5 precincts for DFL Support (Image 1) but each of the Top 5 saw declining DFL Support in 2024
Rural precincts dominate the list for lowest DFL support (Image 2) with a positive swing in ALTURA.

Image 1

Image 2

Sorted by Change in DFL Support

WINONA proper precincts dominate the list for the most decline in DFL Support (Image 3).
Precincts with increases in DFL support were primarily outside of WINONA proper - although the top precinct was WINONA 4-3 (Image 4).
Note the magnitude of losses (max 13%) is greater than gains (max 3%) for an overall decline.

Image 3

Image 4

Declines in DFL Support are concentrated in WINONA proper while increases in support are found in more rural precincts like STOCKTON, GOODVIEW P2B, and DRESBACH.

To keep Minnesota blue, the DFL needs to understand what is working outside of WINONA proper, and what is driving people away from the DFL in the City.

2024 was not a turnout challenge but a loss of support by Democrats, as voters turned out for Republicans.

Democrats carried all of the state-wide decline in votes in 2024 while Republicans gained votes and margin.

We see dynamics at the state level similar to those of Winona County,

with Southeast Minnesota amongst the three Congressional Districts (CD) that saw increases in DFL votes - CD's 1, 6, and 8.

Note - CD6 is the outlier as the only County with a larger increase for Democrats than Republicans - in CD1 and CD8 increases in DFL votes were offset by larger increases in Republican votes.

"Turnout Hypothesis" Test Case: Winona County - Presidential Race

Democrats lost 400 votes while Republicans gained over 1,000.

Question: Where were DFL votes lost in Winona County?

Answer: Disproportionately in WINONA precincts.

This graphic shows the change in DFL and Republican vote totals by precinct.

We can use the slider on the left to zoom in,

shown below

Zooming in on positive vote changes only, we see a strong outperformance by Republicans with DFL votes only positive in four precincts - split evenly between WINONA proper and Goodview/Stockton.

Zooming in on negative vote changes only, we see a completely opposite picture dominated by the DFL with declines all along WINONA and the maximum loss of 109 votes - 25% of the votes lost - in WINONA 3-4.

WINONA proper precincts accounted for 61% of the decline in DFL votes despite accounting for only 49.5% of the ballots cast, meaning WINONA had a disproportionately negative impact on DFL support by the county.

Looking at total DFL/R vote counts and filtering to WINONA precincts we see it remains a solidly blue area but notice the blue line that indicates the change in DFL support shows all but two precincts with declining DFL support.

Change in DFL votes by Precinct

Looking at total DFL/R vote counts and filtering to NON- WINONA precincts we see complete opposite, with all precincts turning out for Republicans over Democrats

This graphic shows only precincts with increases in DFL support

In 2024 Winona County was one of four MN counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican in the Presidential race
WINONA proper precincts still voted blue but saw strong declines in DFL Support
Republicans gained handily in most precincts, led and dominated by WINONA proper precincts.

The most dense voting areas, that are considered reliably blue, are helping Republicans win and moving away from Democrats - both in Winona County and MN as a whole.

At the same time, again both in Winona County and MN as a whole, we see outlying, rural precincts increasing in DFL support.

This table shows each precinct's change in Republican and DFL votes.

Only two precincts saw increases in DFL votes:

WINONA 3-1

The precinct with maximum growth in DFL votes (162) votes also saw a strong increase of Republican votes (139).

WINONA 1-2

The only other precinct with a growth in DFL votes (11) saw a higher increase of Republican votes (65).