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Sizing Up Winona County Precincts

  • 33,602 Registered Voters

  • 49 Precincts

  • 27,797 Votes in 2024

  • 83.2% Turnout 2024

  • -1.06 Turnout Change

  • 46.51% DFL% 2024 Presidential

  • -2.55 DFL%

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Let's look at where the voters are and where the changes happened.

Registered Voters

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Registered Voters by Precinct

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Registered Voters and % of Total by Precinct

DFL Support and Turnout by Precinct

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X-axis is DFL % support

Y-axis is voter turnout (2024, Presidential)

  • Segmenting this chart into four quadrants is very helpful:

    • High DFL Support and High Turnout​

    • High DFL Support and Low Turnout

    • Low DFL Support and High Turnout

    • Low DFL Support and Low Turnout

The 40-50% range has sizeable precincts (shout-out GOODVIEW P-1!) with modest-high turnout. These are critical precincts for early and continued contact.

The 40% and below range is showing up to vote. Notable here is ST CHARLES which is 8% of the electorate.

DFL Support and Change in DFL Support by Precinct

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X-axis is DFL % support

Y-axis is the change in that support in 2024

  • Segmenting this chart into four quadrants is very helpful:

    • High DFL Support and Increasing Support​

    • High DFL Support and Decreasing Support

    • Low DFL Support and Increasing Support

    • Low DFL Support and Decreasing Support

  • What precincts are increasing in DFL support?

  • What precincts are decreasing in DFL support?​​

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Support by Precinct across races

Let's drill down into the support measured above

DFL Support by Precinct by Race - Winona County
(20B minimized)
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Looking at DFL support by precinct by race we can see

  • WINONA precincts are strong DFL support (see 'MN 2024' for a breakdown of change in support from 2020)

  • WINONA 3-1 (WSU PRECINCT) stands out as having the highest ​DFL support in the 26A race

  • We can see US Senator Klobuchar as the highest DFL support in any race - But looking at Klobuchar's support in Winona County in 2024 and 2018 we see 56.53% in 2018 and 49.67% in 2024 - a decline of 6.86%. 

Change in DFL votes by Precinct - Winona County (20B minimized)
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Looking at the change in DFL votes by precinct we can see

  • WINONA 3-1 (WSU PRECINCT) is pulling 26A to the left - one of only five precincts to do so.

  • Note USSEN is comparing highly popular Amy Klobuchar to Tina Smith who is retiring as of February 13, 2025.

  • Note 26A saw disproportionate decline in voter support compared to other races.

  • The DFL lost 404 votes in the Presidential race which saw the County flip back to Republicans, reverting to 2016 results.

Digging Deeper - Change in Votes by Precinct

Now that we have an idea of how DFL votes changed - let's add the change in Republican votes to get a better understanding of each precinct:

Change in DFL and Republican votes by Precinct - Winona County
(20B minimized)
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Now we see a much clearer picture of how results happened.

We see Republicans dominated the 26A race compared to the other races, and especially in WINONA precincts besides HOMER TWP.

Critically we see WINONA 3-1 (WSU PRECINCT) is seeing strong movement in both directions -

  • WINONA 3-1 strongly contributed to Republican gains in all races

  • WINONA 3-1 is the largest gaining Precinct for Republicans in the Presidential and USSEN races

  • WINONA 3-1 is in the middle of the pack for Republican gains in 26A​

Let's look  at what drove each race in Winona County

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Changes in DFL Support by Precinct by Race - Compare WINONA & non-WINONA precincts

Let's look at each precinct's change in DFL votes by race to see where tickets were split.

To fit the data without scrolling we will separate WINONA and non-WINONA precincts:

Total change in DFL votes - Winona County

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Putting it together - Winona County

Let's look at the change in DFL support in the Presidential, USHOUSE, and MNHOUSE races by precinct. We're taking the first visual on this page, reflecting total voters by precinct, and we are going to color the bars by the change in DFL support in each race.

This information allows us to spot opportunities for recapturing DFL support down-ballot.

We can intersect this information with precinct-level turnout to further develop our understanding.

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The opportunity is the coordination of effort across groups and campaigns, across channels, and - critically- across the election cycle. April is the time to capture leverage and build the bench. â€‹

CHANGE IN DFL SUPPORT BY RACE BY PRECINCT

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Please contact us to explore the data, including pulling this same information for different geographies and races.

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© 2025 True Blue Data Services LLC

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