2024 Presidential Election

Despite the state's Governor serving as the Vice Presidential nominee, Minnesota saw a notable shift to the right. The Democratic ticket won the presidential campaign with a margin of 4.2% in 2024 compared to 7.1% in 2020. Four key counties flipped from blue to red, signaling changing voter dynamics and underscoring the importance of localized campaign strategies.

Minnesota Democrats gained big in 2020’s high-turnout surge, but in 2024 they lost votes even as registration hit a record high. In our new world of disparate realities and targeted communication, Democrats can no longer count on increased support from a growing electorate.

Vote Share by Party by Year

In Minnesota, the 2016 election showed a fairly close race, with Democrats holding 46.4% of the vote and Republicans close behind at 44.9%.

By 2020, Democrats expanded their lead significantly to 52.4%, fueled by strong turnout and support from swing voters who helped build a broad winning coalition. Republicans also gained slightly but lagged behind at 45.3%.

In 2024, however, the landscape shifted. The Democratic vote share declined by 1.49 percentage points to 50.9%, while Republican support grew by 1.38 points, reaching 46.7%. Importantly, third-party and independent voters remained steady.

DFL Margin by Year

In 2024 Democrats lose ground while maintaining positive momentum from 2016.

Turnout by year

Voter turnout surged in 2020 but fell back to 2016 levels in 2024, despite continued growth in registered voters. Democrats often assume higher turnout translates to stronger support, but the 2024 results show otherwise: turnout dropped, and the decline came entirely from Democratic voters, while Republicans and third-party candidates both gained. This marks a dramatic shift in the electorate.

Change in votes by party by year

In 2020 both Democrats and Republicans pulled shares from 3rd party candidates with Democrats gaining more.

In 2024 there is an overall decline in presidential election voters, with Democrats carrying all of the decline while Republicans gained slightly.

Minnesota saw an overall decline of voters in 2024 of 22,446 even though the total number of registered voters continued to increase.

Minnesota saw total registered voters increase in 2024 by just over 134,000 compared to an almost 2X increase in 2020 of over 224,000 voters.

2024 Change in Democratic support

This graphic shows the Democratic party's change in voter support in 2024 in the presidential race. Only (3) counties increased in their support for the Democratic candidate while we saw a right-ward shift in Minnesota regardless of geography.

Flipped Counties

Four MN counties were flipped in the presidential election in 2024, and all four flipped from Democratic to Republican. The flipped counties represent 128K registered voters. Strong voter turnout was seen alongside declines in DFL support. The targeting of Minnesota by Republicans in 2024 was successful and is expected to increase.

Minnesota’s voter registration continued to grow in 2024, yet turnout fell back to 2016 levels. The decline came entirely from Democratic support, while Republicans and third parties gained ground. This shift was broad, affecting both urban and rural areas, and led to four counties moving from Democratic to Republican. Together, these trends signal a realignment in Minnesota’s electorate.

This shift was not about turnout, registration, or geography. It reflects a deeper shift in voter behavior. To meet this moment, those committed to democracy must adapt to how voters are being influenced and mobilized.

True Blue Data Services helps organizations and campaigns evolve with voters by transforming information and technology into actionable understanding — overcoming barriers to voter education and engagement.